Tycoon Holding Co for Financial Investments Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, November 15th, 2026
1 Day
172.84
increased by 125.46
1 Week
83.11
increased by 35.73
1 Month
1,006.77
increased by 959.39
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2013 to Nov 12, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1359 trading days (~5.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1359 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.7021 | 3.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.3324 | 27.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6671 | 55.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3872 | 0.08 |
| γ2 | -0.3773 | -0.06 |
| γ3 | -1.7081 | -0.36 |
| γ4 | -1.0105 | -0.18 |
| γ5 | 57.5796 | 11.18*** |
| γ6 | -462.8500 | -63.28*** |
| γ7 | 1,292.2400 | 178.37*** |
| γ8 | -1,700.9382 | -204.89*** |
| γ9 | 1,217.0256 | 108.39*** |
| γ10 | -702.9087 | -9.47*** |
0.999
Persistence1359d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.7021 | 3.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3324 | 27.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6671 | 55.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.3872 | 0.08 |
| γ2 | -0.3773 | -0.06 |
| γ3 | -1.7081 | -0.36 |
| γ4 | -1.0105 | -0.18 |
| γ5 | 57.5796 | 11.18*** |
| γ6 | -462.8500 | -63.28*** |
| γ7 | 1,292.2400 | 178.37*** |
| γ8 | -1,700.9382 | -204.89*** |
| γ9 | 1,217.0256 | 108.39*** |
| γ10 | -702.9087 | -9.47*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1359 days
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