V-Lab
Tycoon Holding Co for Financial Investments Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
1,972.26
increased by 1,956.54
1 Week
436.70
increased by 420.98
1 Month
154.57
increased by 138.85
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2013 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.9536 | |
| αARCH | 0.3472 | |
| βGARCH | 0.6025 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.7575 | |
| γ2 | -29.3139 | |
| γ3 | 37.2326 | |
| γ4 | -47.1648 | |
| γ5 | 419.1260 | |
| γ6 | -2,416.9375 | |
| γ7 | 5,517.7909 | |
| γ8 | -5,944.5186 | |
| γ9 | 3,259.8716 | |
| γ10 | -1,246.0673 |
0.950
Persistence13d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.9536 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3472 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6025 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.7575 | |
| γ2 | -29.3139 | |
| γ3 | 37.2326 | |
| γ4 | -47.1648 | |
| γ5 | 419.1260 | |
| γ6 | -2,416.9375 | |
| γ7 | 5,517.7909 | |
| γ8 | -5,944.5186 | |
| γ9 | 3,259.8716 | |
| γ10 | -1,246.0673 |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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