Tycoon Holding Co for Financial Investments Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026
1 Day
333.01
increased by 118.03
1 Week
201.92
decreased by 13.06
1 Month
103.91
decreased by 111.07
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2013 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~273 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.6937 | |
| αARCH | 0.2118 | |
| βGARCH | 0.7857 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.8366 | |
| γ2 | -1.8649 | |
| γ3 | -1.1570 | |
| γ4 | -18.7343 | |
| γ5 | 319.5812 | |
| γ6 | -2,127.2562 | |
| γ7 | 5,385.4516 | |
| γ8 | -6,393.3859 | |
| γ9 | 3,868.6802 | |
| γ10 | -1,618.9104 |
0.997
Persistence273d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.6937 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2118 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7857 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 1.8366 | |
| γ2 | -1.8649 | |
| γ3 | -1.1570 | |
| γ4 | -18.7343 | |
| γ5 | 319.5812 | |
| γ6 | -2,127.2562 | |
| γ7 | 5,385.4516 | |
| γ8 | -6,393.3859 | |
| γ9 | 3,868.6802 | |
| γ10 | -1,618.9104 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
273 days
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