V-Lab
Tycoon Holding Co for Financial Investments Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, October 4th, 2026
1 Day
515.52
increased by 513.92
1 Week
143.10
increased by 141.50
1 Month
69.11
increased by 67.51
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2013 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~136 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 65.3603 | |
| αARCH | 0.2998 | |
| βGARCH | 0.6952 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.5516 | |
| γ2 | -57.5037 | |
| γ3 | 140.3893 | |
| γ4 | -199.7905 | |
| γ5 | 474.8686 | |
| γ6 | -2,254.0998 | |
| γ7 | 5,393.2996 | |
| γ8 | -6,201.1043 | |
| γ9 | 3,726.7874 | |
| γ10 | -1,746.5127 |
0.995
Persistence136d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 65.3603 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2998 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6952 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 9.5516 | |
| γ2 | -57.5037 | |
| γ3 | 140.3893 | |
| γ4 | -199.7905 | |
| γ5 | 474.8686 | |
| γ6 | -2,254.0998 | |
| γ7 | 5,393.2996 | |
| γ8 | -6,201.1043 | |
| γ9 | 3,726.7874 | |
| γ10 | -1,746.5127 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
136 days
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