How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	106
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.3307	3.15***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8273	26.96***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.3307	-2.42**
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0000	0.11
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0016	0.66
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.8506	29.35***

V-Lab

Grimoldi SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Grimoldi SA Analyses