Grimoldi SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
133,236.30
1 Week
146,527.18
1 Month
76,899.12
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 11, 1995 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.3299 | 3.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8273 | 27.09*** |
| γleverage | -0.3299 | -2.45** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.11 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0016 | 0.66 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8505 | 29.42*** |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3299 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8273 | 27.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3299 | -2.45** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0016 | 0.66 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8505 | 29.42*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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