V-Lab
MCR SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
1,112,408.00
1 Week
1,068,768.32
1 Month
809,053.83
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6079 | 0.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6371 | 12.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -0.07 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0980 | 0.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9020 | 35.09*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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