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MCR SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

1,112,408.00

increased by 287,612.00

1 Week

1,068,768.32

increased by 243,972.32

1 Month

809,053.83

decreased by 15,742.17

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MCR SA ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6079
0.18
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6371
12.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-0.07
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0980
0.19
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9020
35.09***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days