V-Lab
Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
58,916.16
decreased by 8,047.75
1 Week
73,879.75
increased by 6,915.84
1 Month
122,365.65
increased by 55,401.74
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 03:52 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 1992 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1833 trading days (~7.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3267 | 2.42** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2173 | 10.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7823 | 37.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0181 | 0.17 |
| γ2 | -1.0998 | -5.22*** |
| γ3 | 3.1114 | 7.84*** |
| γ4 | -4.2061 | -6.89*** |
| γ5 | 1.4330 | 1.40 |
| γ6 | 2.9884 | 1.57 |
| γ7 | -0.4474 | -0.23 |
| γ8 | -5.3432 | -1.77* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1833 days
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