V-Lab
Beijing Sifang Automation Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
24.93
decreased by 0.65
1 Week
30.42
increased by 4.84
1 Month
43.93
increased by 18.35
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 20386 trading days (~80.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8953 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2541 | 14.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7459 | 42.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0197 | -1.98** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
20386 days
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