Beijing Sifang Automation Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.45
decreased by 4.56
1 Week
36.67
decreased by 0.34
1 Month
30.46
decreased by 6.55
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2889 | 6.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.1535 | 11.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8397 | 63.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0244 | -3.58*** |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2889 | 6.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1535 | 11.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8397 | 63.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0244 | -3.58*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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