V-Lab
Beijing Sifang Automation Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.30
decreased by 2.64
1 Week
44.61
decreased by 2.33
1 Month
30.76
decreased by 16.18
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21004 trading days (~83.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8960 | 2.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2544 | 14.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7456 | 41.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0198 | -1.98** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
21004 days
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