V-Lab
Orsted AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
6,834,330.00
increased by 902.00
1 Week
6,904,119.33
increased by 70,691.33
1 Month
7,426,663.78
increased by 593,235.78
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7457 | 4.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8912 | 2.45** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -52.5984 | -0.75 |
0.891
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7457 | 4.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8912 | 2.45** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -52.5984 | -0.75 |
Persistence:
0.891
Half-life:
6 days
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