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V-Lab

Orsted AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

10,935,200.00

increased by 1,000.00

1 Week

10,864,357.50

decreased by 69,842.50

1 Month

10,519,953.00

decreased by 414,247.00

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Orsted AS ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7621
3.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8695
1.29
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-27.8512
-0.21

Persistence:

0.869

Half-life:

5 days