V-Lab
Orsted AS Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
1,687,993.00
increased by 748.00
1 Week
1,776,084.00
increased by 88,839.00
1 Month
2,823,577.30
increased by 1,136,332.30
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1034 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6667 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9993 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -194.4963 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1034 days
Other Orsted AS Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities