V-Lab
Orsted AS ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
4,391,372.00
1 Week
5,889,306.50
1 Month
12,629,234.30
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 06:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6872 | 1.18 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -0.46 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0100 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1995 | 1.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8005 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.437
Half-life:
1 days
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