Nichiwa Sangyo Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,996.52
1 Week
5,875.16
1 Month
5,010.10
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1320 | 0.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7772 | 64.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1320 | -0.06 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.13 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0657 | 0.13 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9343 | 35.40*** |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
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