V-Lab
Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
24.12
increased by 3.33
1 Week
19.34
decreased by 1.45
1 Month
19.08
decreased by 1.71
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7611 | 11.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3654 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6568 | 70.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0444 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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