V-Lab
United States Dollar Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
5.10%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
5.11%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
5.14%
decreased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 100 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~100 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8525 | 5.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.0378 | 9.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9553 | 200.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.45 |
0.993
Persistence100d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8525 | 5.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0378 | 9.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9553 | 200.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0013 | -1.45 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
100 days
Other United States Dollar Index Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on Currencies