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V-Lab

Chilean Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

10.20%

increased by 0.27%

1 Week

10.18%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

10.09%

increased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Chilean Peso SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7230
6.13***
αARCH0.0739
7.41***
βGARCH0.8794
56.32***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0283
0.50
γ20.0198
0.21
γ3-0.1545
-2.44**
γ40.2126
4.57***
γ5-0.1986
-4.95***
γ60.1452
4.83***
γ7-0.0531
-1.48
γ80.0126
0.38
γ9-0.0493
-1.83*
γ100.0451
1.18

0.953

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7230
6.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0739
7.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8794
56.32***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0283
0.50
γ20.0198
0.21
γ3-0.1545
-2.44**
γ40.2126
4.57***
γ5-0.1986
-4.95***
γ60.1452
4.83***
γ7-0.0531
-1.48
γ80.0126
0.38
γ9-0.0493
-1.83*
γ100.0451
1.18

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days