V-Lab
Chilean Peso Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
10.20%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
10.18%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
10.09%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 31, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7230 | 6.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.0739 | 7.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8794 | 56.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0283 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | 0.0198 | 0.21 |
| γ3 | -0.1545 | -2.44** |
| γ4 | 0.2126 | 4.57*** |
| γ5 | -0.1986 | -4.95*** |
| γ6 | 0.1452 | 4.83*** |
| γ7 | -0.0531 | -1.48 |
| γ8 | 0.0126 | 0.38 |
| γ9 | -0.0493 | -1.83* |
| γ10 | 0.0451 | 1.18 |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7230 | 6.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0739 | 7.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8794 | 56.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0283 | 0.50 |
| γ2 | 0.0198 | 0.21 |
| γ3 | -0.1545 | -2.44** |
| γ4 | 0.2126 | 4.57*** |
| γ5 | -0.1986 | -4.95*** |
| γ6 | 0.1452 | 4.83*** |
| γ7 | -0.0531 | -1.48 |
| γ8 | 0.0126 | 0.38 |
| γ9 | -0.0493 | -1.83* |
| γ10 | 0.0451 | 1.18 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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