V-Lab
CME Lumber GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.54%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
23.79%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
24.74%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 5, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 487 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.5428 | 10.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0546 | 35.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9986 | 3,566.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.1084 | 46.21*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
487 days
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