V-Lab
CME Lumber AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
26.73%
decreased by 4.21%
1 Week
32.47%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
39.67%
increased by 8.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 5, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.74) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0384 | 15.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4376 | 13.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3925 | 20.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7442 | 11.06*** |
Persistence:
0.830
Half-life:
4 days
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