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V-Lab

CME Lumber AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

26.73%

decreased by 4.21%

1 Week

32.47%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

39.67%

increased by 8.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CME Lumber AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 5, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.74) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0384
15.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4376
13.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3925
20.67***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7442
11.06***

Persistence:

0.830

Half-life:

4 days