V-Lab
CME Lumber MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.34%
decreased by 2.98%
1 Week
20.74%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
24.76%
increased by 3.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 5, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5175 | 22.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 24.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.7371 | 1.67* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8039 | 1.80* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.768
Half-life:
3 days
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