V-Lab
CME Lumber EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
31.23%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
31.40%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
32.01%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 5, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The leverage effect is captured by the negative gamma (gamma = -0.1479), confirming that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks of equal magnitude.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0358 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 8.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9777 | 106.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1479 | -10.18*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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