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CBOE S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

45.64%

decreased by 1.77%

1 Week

50.30%

increased by 2.89%

1 Month

60.01%

increased by 12.60%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.8479
10.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1183
16.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9168
89.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2998
4.57***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days