V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
45.64%
decreased by 1.77%
1 Week
50.30%
increased by 2.89%
1 Month
60.01%
increased by 12.60%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.8479 | 10.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1183 | 16.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9168 | 89.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2998 | 4.57*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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