V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
46.03%
1 Week
49.22%
1 Month
54.86%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1759 | 26.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7723 | 85.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1408 | -16.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 1,691.80*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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