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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

46.03%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

49.22%

increased by 2.50%

1 Month

54.86%

increased by 8.14%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 19, 2014 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1759
26.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7723
85.37***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1408
-16.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.02
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
1,691.80***

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days