V-Lab
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2.77%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
2.81%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
2.99%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 96% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 10.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0409 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9333 | 260.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0392 | 4.55*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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