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V-Lab

State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

2.77%

increased by 0.23%

1 Week

2.81%

increased by 0.27%

1 Month

2.99%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 96% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
10.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0409
7.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9333
260.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0392
4.55***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days