V-Lab
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
2.69%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
2.73%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
2.90%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 7.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0615 | 18.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9325 | 246.10*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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