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V-Lab

State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

2.62%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

2.68%

increased by 0.00%

1 Month

2.86%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 30, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 97% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0007
6.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0577
14.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9327
274.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1629
5.39***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.0549
23.19***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

103 days