V-Lab
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
2.62%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.68%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
2.86%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 97% more than positive returns
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0007 | 6.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0577 | 14.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9327 | 274.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1629 | 5.39*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.0549 | 23.19*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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