V-Lab
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
2.72%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
2.77%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
2.86%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5782 | 2.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0718 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8156 | 14.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1885 | 0.45 |
| γ2 | -0.1788 | -0.33 |
| γ3 | -0.3740 | -1.06 |
| γ4 | 0.9197 | 2.22** |
| γ5 | -0.8588 | -2.18** |
| γ6 | 0.9045 | 2.48** |
| γ7 | -1.4912 | -4.49*** |
| γ8 | 1.2565 | 4.45*** |
| γ9 | -0.3322 | -1.69* |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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