V-Lab
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
2.45%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
2.54%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
2.72%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5844 | 2.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0716 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8186 | 14.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.1924 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | -0.1908 | -0.36 |
| γ3 | -0.3518 | -1.01 |
| γ4 | 0.8883 | 2.15** |
| γ5 | -0.8179 | -2.08** |
| γ6 | 0.8499 | 2.33** |
| γ7 | -1.4396 | -4.37*** |
| γ8 | 1.2270 | 4.38*** |
| γ9 | -0.3197 | -1.64 |
Persistence:
0.890
Half-life:
6 days
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