V-Lab
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-10 Year TIPS ETF AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
3.49%
increased by 0.69%
1 Week
3.53%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
3.66%
increased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 30, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 97 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0006 | 6.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 18.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9304 | 248.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0593 | 4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
97 days
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