V-Lab
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.45%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
25.91%
increased by 1.34%
1 Month
29.18%
increased by 4.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1991 to Jun 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0887 | 19.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7422 | 101.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0616 | 10.57*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4748 | 4.13*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8221 | 21.10*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0575 | 0.97 |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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