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V-Lab

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

24.45%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

25.91%

increased by 1.34%

1 Month

29.18%

increased by 4.61%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1991 to Jun 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0887
19.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7422
101.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0616
10.57***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.4748
4.13***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8221
21.10***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0575
0.97

Persistence:

0.862

Half-life:

5 days