Skip to main content
V-Lab

Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

29.57%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

29.66%

decreased by 1.21%

1 Month

29.99%

decreased by 0.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 3, 1991 to Jun 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.1191
6.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0996
38.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9828
345.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7736
13.31***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days