V-Lab
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.40%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
29.61%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
30.36%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1991 to Jun 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 31% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0635 | 20.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0791 | 14.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8975 | 244.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0241 | 2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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