V-Lab
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
21.16%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
21.67%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
23.44%
increased by 1.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1991 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0638 | 5.14*** |
| αARCH | 0.0792 | 3.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8974 | 61.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.0238 | 0.67 |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0638 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0792 | 3.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8974 | 61.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0238 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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