V-Lab
S&P 500 Scored & Screened Index (ESG) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
12.46%
increased by 1.25%
1 Week
13.05%
increased by 1.84%
1 Month
14.50%
increased by 3.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 28, 2005 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8312 | 193.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2272 | 28.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0340 | 2.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1212 | 2.37** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8480 | 13.40*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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