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V-Lab

S&P 500 Scored & Screened Index (ESG) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

13.35%

increased by 0.13%

1 Week

13.80%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

15.16%

increased by 1.94%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Scored & Screened Index (ESG) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 28, 2005 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6613
6.38***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1280
8.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8381
51.00***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0391
-3.52***
γ20.0619
3.60***
γ3-0.0312
-3.27***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days