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S&P 500 Scored & Screened Index (ESG) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

12.79%

increased by 0.48%

1 Week

12.98%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

13.65%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P 500 Scored & Screened Index (ESG) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 28, 2005 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2795
5.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1085
31.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9843
352.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3541
7.61***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days