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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Sugar Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

30.62%

increased by 0.07%

1 Week

30.62%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

30.60%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Sugar Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~152 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9483
7.41***
αARCH0.0281
7.57***
βGARCH0.9673
231.42***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.36

0.995

Persistence

152d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9483
7.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0281
7.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9673
231.42***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.36

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

152 days