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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Sugar Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

28.22%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

28.23%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

28.30%

increased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Sugar Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 150 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~150 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9513
7.45***
αARCH0.0282
7.56***
βGARCH0.9672
230.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.32

0.995

Persistence

150d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9513
7.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0282
7.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9672
230.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.32

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

150 days