V-Lab
S&P GSCI Sugar Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.49%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
31.48%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
31.43%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 150 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~150 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9515 | 7.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0284 | 7.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9670 | 229.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.33 |
0.995
Persistence150d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9515 | 7.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0284 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9670 | 229.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.33 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
150 days
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