V-Lab
S&P GSCI Sugar Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
28.22%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
28.23%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
28.30%
increased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 150 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~150 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9513 | 7.45*** |
| αARCH | 0.0282 | 7.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9672 | 230.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.32 |
0.995
Persistence150d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9513 | 7.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0282 | 7.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9672 | 230.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
150 days
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