V-Lab
S&P GSCI Platinum Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.11%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
40.04%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Month
39.79%
decreased by 1.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 218 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~218 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0101 | 3.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0575 | 5.22*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9490 | 161.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.0194 | -1.28 |
0.997
Persistence218d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0101 | 3.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0575 | 5.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9490 | 161.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0194 | -1.28 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
218 days
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