S&P GSCI Platinum Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
39.14%
1 Week
40.19%
1 Month
40.62%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 17% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1013 | 19.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6531 | 25.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0150 | -2.49** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0103 | 1.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0546 | 2.48** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9417 | 39.42*** |
Persistence:
0.747
Half-life:
2 days
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