S&P GSCI Platinum Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
33.41%
1 Week
33.36%
1 Month
33.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.3633 | 1.52 |
| αscore | 0.0408 | 14.08*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9970 | 498.49*** |
| νDF | 6.1577 | 3.32*** |
0.997
Persistence230d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.3633 | 1.52 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0408 | 14.08*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9970 | 498.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1577 | 3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
230 days
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