V-Lab
S&P GSCI Platinum Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
36.43%
decreased by 1.17%
1 Week
36.36%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
36.12%
decreased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 226 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3694 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0413 | 55.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 1,958.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1802 | 13.12*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
226 days
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