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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Platinum Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

33.41%

increased by 2.05%

1 Week

33.36%

increased by 2.00%

1 Month

33.18%

increased by 1.82%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Platinum Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 230 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~230 daysv = 6.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.3633
1.52
αscore0.0408
14.08***
βpersistence0.9970
498.49***
νDF6.1577
3.32***

0.997

Persistence

230d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.3633
1.52
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0408
14.08***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9970
498.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1577
3.32***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

230 days