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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Platinum Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

39.25%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

39.18%

decreased by 1.36%

1 Month

38.90%

decreased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Platinum Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 232 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.16 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~232 daysv = 6.16 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3849
1.53
αARCH0.0409
14.14***
βGARCH0.9970
508.94***
νDF6.1601
3.36***

0.997

Persistence

232d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3849
1.53
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0409
14.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9970
508.94***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1601
3.36***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

232 days