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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

32.05%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

32.64%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

34.75%

increased by 2.10%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 69 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1391
8.76***
αARCH0.0755
11.05***
βGARCH0.9145
129.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.67

0.990

Persistence

69d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1391
8.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0755
11.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9145
129.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.67

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days