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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

45.40%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

45.60%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

46.35%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 67 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1312
8.82***
αARCH0.0756
11.03***
βGARCH0.9142
128.88***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.56

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1312
8.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0756
11.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9142
128.88***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.56

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days