V-Lab
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
45.40%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
45.60%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
46.35%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 67 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1312 | 8.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0756 | 11.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9142 | 128.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.56 |
0.990
Persistence67d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1312 | 8.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0756 | 11.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9142 | 128.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.56 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
67 days
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