V-Lab
S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.05%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
32.64%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
34.75%
increased by 2.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 69 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1391 | 8.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0755 | 11.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9145 | 129.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.67 |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1391 | 8.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 11.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9145 | 129.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0001 | 0.67 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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