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S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

54.34%

decreased by 2.04%

1 Week

54.34%

decreased by 2.04%

1 Month

54.34%

decreased by 2.04%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 12:09 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 67 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1305
8.85***
αARCH0.0754
11.05***
βGARCH0.9144
129.48***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.58

0.990

Persistence

67d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1305
8.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0754
11.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9144
129.48***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0001
0.58

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

67 days