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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

37.85%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

39.14%

increased by 0.78%

1 Month

43.50%

increased by 5.14%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1994 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8308
8.21***
αARCH0.0759
10.36***
βGARCH0.9092
114.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0064
-3.71***
γ20.0133
4.18***

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8308
8.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0759
10.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9092
114.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0064
-3.71***
γ20.0133
4.18***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days