S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
14.33%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
14.37%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
14.49%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7867 | 9.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.0498 | 9.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9351 | 142.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -1.13 |
| γ2 | 0.0011 | 0.87 |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7867 | 9.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 9.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9351 | 142.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0011 | -1.13 |
| γ2 | 0.0011 | 0.87 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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