V-Lab
S&P GSCI Live Cattle Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.64%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
16.60%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
16.46%
increased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 47 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8156 | 12.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.0496 | 9.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9357 | 144.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.18 |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8156 | 12.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0496 | 9.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9357 | 144.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.18 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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