V-Lab
S&P GSCI Feeder Cattle Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.21%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
19.11%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
18.77%
decreased by 0.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 293% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0183 | 19.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0199 | 8.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9334 | 483.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0584 | 12.11*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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