V-Lab
S&P GSCI Feeder Cattle Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.21%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
18.16%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
17.98%
decreased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0516 | 14.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0511 | 22.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 889.44*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.4316 | 3.28*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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