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S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

34.88%

increased by 2.01%

1 Week

35.20%

increased by 2.33%

1 Month

36.35%

increased by 3.48%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI All Crude Spot Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7912
3.78***
αARCH0.0786
8.53***
βGARCH0.9064
98.62***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0060
0.68
γ2-0.0188
-1.60
γ30.0251
3.92***
γ4-0.0176
-3.94***

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7912
3.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0786
8.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9064
98.62***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ10.0060
0.68
γ2-0.0188
-1.60
γ30.0251
3.92***
γ4-0.0176
-3.94***

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days