V-Lab
S&P GSCI Corn Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
26.73%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
26.68%
increased by 0.11%
1 Month
26.51%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3340 | 7.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0647 | 37.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 749.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1369 | 7.55*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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