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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Corn Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

26.73%

increased by 0.16%

1 Week

26.68%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

26.51%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Corn Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3340
7.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0647
37.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9901
749.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.1369
7.55***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days