V-Lab
S&P GSCI Corn Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
21.04%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
21.11%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Month
21.38%
decreased by 0.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 15% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 33.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8899 | 214.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0110 | 4.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0016 | 7.12*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0102 | 8.56*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9892 | 753.94*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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