Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

14.12%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

14.19%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

14.48%

increased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0118
4.80***
αARCH0.0625
6.12***
βGARCH0.9349
156.47***
γleverage-0.0136
-0.82

0.991

Persistence

74d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0118
4.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0625
6.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9349
156.47***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0136
-0.82

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

74 days