V-Lab
VanEck Semiconductor ETF Fund GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
41.31%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
41.34%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
41.45%
increased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 280 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.7506 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0660 | 47.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 2,211.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.8123 | 5.86*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
280 days
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