V-Lab
VanEck Semiconductor ETF Fund Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
38.55%
increased by 0.05%
1 Week
38.57%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
38.63%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0360 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0704 | 8.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9082 | 89.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0138 | 2.50** |
| γ2 | -0.0016 | -0.19 |
| γ3 | -0.0198 | -4.10*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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