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V-Lab

VanEck Semiconductor ETF Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

41.58%

increased by 0.47%

1 Week

41.48%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

41.09%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of VanEck Semiconductor ETF Fund GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 5, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 242% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0374
14.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0290
12.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9280
514.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0702
14.74***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days