V-Lab
VanEck Semiconductor ETF Fund GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
41.58%
increased by 0.47%
1 Week
41.48%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
41.09%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 5, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 242% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0374 | 14.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0290 | 12.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9280 | 514.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0702 | 14.74*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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