V-Lab
S&P Asia 50 CME Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
28.32%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
28.32%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
28.34%
decreased by 0.86%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1212 | 5.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0674 | 8.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9077 | 94.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0537 | -1.98** |
| γ2 | 0.1076 | 2.84*** |
| γ3 | -0.1047 | -4.37*** |
| γ4 | 0.0961 | 4.04*** |
| γ5 | -0.0517 | -2.12** |
| γ6 | -0.0045 | -0.22 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1212 | 5.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0674 | 8.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9077 | 94.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0537 | -1.98** |
| γ2 | 0.1076 | 2.84*** |
| γ3 | -0.1047 | -4.37*** |
| γ4 | 0.0961 | 4.04*** |
| γ5 | -0.0517 | -2.12** |
| γ6 | -0.0045 | -0.22 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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