S&P Asia 50 CME Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
31.80%
increased by 6.14%
1 Week
31.66%
increased by 6.00%
1 Month
31.15%
increased by 5.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 15, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1145 | 5.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0679 | 8.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9069 | 95.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0535 | -2.00** |
| γ2 | 0.1067 | 2.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.1034 | -4.39*** |
| γ4 | 0.0955 | 4.08*** |
| γ5 | -0.0521 | -2.18** |
| γ6 | -0.0039 | -0.20 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1145 | 5.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0679 | 8.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 95.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0535 | -2.00** |
| γ2 | 0.1067 | 2.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.1034 | -4.39*** |
| γ4 | 0.0955 | 4.08*** |
| γ5 | -0.0521 | -2.18** |
| γ6 | -0.0039 | -0.20 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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