V-Lab
S&P Asia 50 CME Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
30.31%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
30.48%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Month
31.11%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:50 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 36 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4955 | 9.26*** |
| αARCH | 0.0693 | 9.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9119 | 107.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0052 | 5.15*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4955 | 9.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 9.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9119 | 107.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0052 | 5.15*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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