V-Lab
RMA Global Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
87.83%
decreased by 7.13%
1 Week
94.10%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Month
96.14%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1786 | 10.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4184 | 9.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0094 | -0.41 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.6480 | 0.45 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0290 | 0.46 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9177 | 5.44*** |
Persistence:
0.592
Half-life:
1 days
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