V-Lab
RMA Global Limited Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
101.33%
decreased by 6.01%
1 Week
108.51%
increased by 1.17%
1 Month
112.87%
increased by 5.53%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 5, 2018 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0334 | 6.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1624 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4404 | 3.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.9713 | 1.91* |
| γ2 | -1.9581 | -2.41** |
| γ3 | 2.1547 | 2.83*** |
| γ4 | -2.2754 | -2.42** |
| γ5 | 1.7414 | 1.93* |
| γ6 | -0.5127 | -0.81 |
| γ7 | -0.3850 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.603
Half-life:
1 days
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