V-Lab
Primerica Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
23.80%
increased by 0.87%
1 Week
24.15%
increased by 1.22%
1 Month
25.16%
increased by 2.23%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 2, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9853 | 8.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0910 | 18.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9524 | 164.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2441 | 5.25*** |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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